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If the percentage of scheduled passenger and cargo flights at John F. Kennedy International Airport (JFK/KJFK) that are cancelled during October 21, 2026 is at least 50%, then the market resolves to Yes. EXCLUDED EVENTS “Excluded Event” means any event or circumstance arising from, or directly resulting from: (i) Any act of unlawful interference with civil aviation, including sabotage, unlawful seizure of aircraft, or interference with air navigation facilities or services; (ii) Any deliberate act or omission by any person, whether or not identified, undertaken with the purpose or reasonably foreseeable effect of disrupting operations at John F. Kennedy International Airport (JFK/KJFK), including without limitation unauthorized unmanned aircraft operations, laser illumination, trespass upon or unauthorized presence within the air operations area, tampering with or destruction of airport, air carrier, air traffic control, or utility infrastructure serving John F. Kennedy International Airport (JFK/KJFK), and false reports or threats resulting in evacuation, ground stop, or suspension of operations; (iii) Any malicious cyber incident affecting systems of John F. Kennedy International Airport (JFK/KJFK), any air carrier, or any air navigation service provider, as characterized by the affected entity or a governmental authority; or (iv) Any security-related closure, ground stop, or operational suspension ordered by a governmental authority in response to an actual or suspected act described in clauses (i)–(iii) or to any actual or suspected act of unlawful violence, wherever occurring. HOW THE CANCELLATION PERCENTAGE IS CALCULATED The cancellation percentage is calculated by dividing the number of cancelled flights within the fixed schedule by the total number of scheduled flights and multiplying the result by 100. The result is carried to two decimal places without rounding; any digits beyond the second decimal place are truncated. Schedule baseline: The schedule baseline for this market is October 19, 2026 at 11:59:59 PM ET. Fixed scheduled-flight total: The binding total number of scheduled flights will be determined as of October 19, 2026 at 11:59:59 PM ET. This total consists of commercial passenger and cargo flights, including arrivals and departures combined, scheduled to operate at John F. Kennedy International Airport (JFK/KJFK) during October 21, 2026. The fixed total includes any flight subsequently cancelled and is not reduced by cancellations, schedule changes, or removals occurring after the schedule baseline. Flights added after the schedule baseline are excluded from both the scheduled-flight total and the cancellation count. Cancelled flights: A flight counts as cancelled only if it is included in the fixed scheduled-flight total and is classified as cancelled by FlightAware as of the Expiration time. Cancellations made after the schedule baseline but before the beginning of October 21, 2026, including pre-emptive cancellations, are counted. Reinstated flights: A flight initially classified as cancelled that is subsequently reinstated and operates during October 21, 2026 is not counted as cancelled. Excluded flight outcomes: Delayed flights, diverted flights, and gate returns that ultimately depart are not counted as cancelled, regardless of the length of the delay. Corrections and revisions: Corrections, retractions, or restatements made by the Source Agency before Expiration will be considered. Revisions made after Expiration will not be considered. Local time and flight attribution: All dates and times relating to the scheduling and operation of flights are interpreted in the local time of John F. Kennedy International Airport (JFK/KJFK) unless otherwise specified. Each flight is attributed to October 21, 2026 according to its originally scheduled date of operation at the airport. AIRPORT CLOSURE If John F. Kennedy International Airport (JFK/KJFK) is fully closed and no scheduled flight operates for the entirety of October 21, 2026, the cancellation percentage will be deemed 100.00%. If the scheduled-flight total is zero because the airport is closed, or has been ordered or announced to be closed, for the entirety of October 21, 2026, the cancellation percentage will be deemed 100.00%. If the scheduled-flight total is zero for any other reason, the outcome will be determined pursuant to Rule 7.1 of the Rulebook. Outcome verified by FlightAware

If the percentage of scheduled passenger and cargo flights at John F. Kennedy International Airport (JFK/KJFK) that are cancelled during October 21, 2026 is at least 50%, then the market resolves to Yes. EXCLUDED EVENTS “Excluded Event” means any event or circumstance arising from, or directly resulting from: (i) Any act of unlawful interference with civil aviation, including sabotage, unlawful seizure of aircraft, or interference with air navigation facilities or services; (ii) Any deliberate act or omission by any person, whether or not identified, undertaken with the purpose or reasonably foreseeable effect of disrupting operations at John F. Kennedy International Airport (JFK/KJFK), including without limitation unauthorized unmanned aircraft operations, laser illumination, trespass upon or unauthorized presence within the air operations area, tampering with or destruction of airport, air carrier, air traffic control, or utility infrastructure serving John F. Kennedy International Airport (JFK/KJFK), and false reports or threats resulting in evacuation, ground stop, or suspension of operations; (iii) Any malicious cyber incident affecting systems of John F. Kennedy International Airport (JFK/KJFK), any air carrier, or any air navigation service provider, as characterized by the affected entity or a governmental authority; or (iv) Any security-related closure, ground stop, or operational suspension ordered by a governmental authority in response to an actual or suspected act described in clauses (i)–(iii) or to any actual or suspected act of unlawful violence, wherever occurring. HOW THE CANCELLATION PERCENTAGE IS CALCULATED The cancellation percentage is calculated by dividing the number of cancelled flights within the fixed schedule by the total number of scheduled flights and multiplying the result by 100. The result is carried to two decimal places without rounding; any digits beyond the second decimal place are truncated. Schedule baseline: The schedule baseline for this market is October 19, 2026 at 11:59:59 PM ET. Fixed scheduled-flight total: The binding total number of scheduled flights will be determined as of October 19, 2026 at 11:59:59 PM ET. This total consists of commercial passenger and cargo flights, including arrivals and departures combined, scheduled to operate at John F. Kennedy International Airport (JFK/KJFK) during October 21, 2026. The fixed total includes any flight subsequently cancelled and is not reduced by cancellations, schedule changes, or removals occurring after the schedule baseline. Flights added after the schedule baseline are excluded from both the scheduled-flight total and the cancellation count. Cancelled flights: A flight counts as cancelled only if it is included in the fixed scheduled-flight total and is classified as cancelled by FlightAware as of the Expiration time. Cancellations made after the schedule baseline but before the beginning of October 21, 2026, including pre-emptive cancellations, are counted. Reinstated flights: A flight initially classified as cancelled that is subsequently reinstated and operates during October 21, 2026 is not counted as cancelled. Excluded flight outcomes: Delayed flights, diverted flights, and gate returns that ultimately depart are not counted as cancelled, regardless of the length of the delay. Corrections and revisions: Corrections, retractions, or restatements made by the Source Agency before Expiration will be considered. Revisions made after Expiration will not be considered. Local time and flight attribution: All dates and times relating to the scheduling and operation of flights are interpreted in the local time of John F. Kennedy International Airport (JFK/KJFK) unless otherwise specified. Each flight is attributed to October 21, 2026 according to its originally scheduled date of operation at the airport. AIRPORT CLOSURE If John F. Kennedy International Airport (JFK/KJFK) is fully closed and no scheduled flight operates for the entirety of October 21, 2026, the cancellation percentage will be deemed 100.00%. If the scheduled-flight total is zero because the airport is closed, or has been ordered or announced to be closed, for the entirety of October 21, 2026, the cancellation percentage will be deemed 100.00%. If the scheduled-flight total is zero for any other reason, the outcome will be determined pursuant to Rule 7.1 of the Rulebook. Outcome verified by FlightAware

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Key stats

Expiry
Oct 22, 2026(99 days)
Timeline & rules

Timeline & payout

This market will close and expire when an outcome occurs. Otherwise, it closes by Oct 22, 2026, 2:00 PM GMT+0.

Trading prohibitions

The following are prohibited from trading this contract:
  • Persons who are employed by any of the Source Agencies are not permitted to trade on the Contract.
  • Persons who hold any material, non-public information on the Underlying are not permitted to trade on the Contract.
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Prediction markets are offered by Coinbase Financial Markets, a registered futures commission merchant with the Commodity Futures Trading Commission and a Member of the National Futures Association. Trading prediction contracts involve substantial risk and may result in the loss of your entire investment. Contracts pay out only if the specified event occurs. Trade only if you understand the product and believe it is appropriate for your financial situation and objectives.Certain content has been prepared by third parties not affiliated with Coinbase Financial Markets or any of its affiliates and Coinbase is not responsible for such content. Coinbase is not liable for any errors or delays in content, or for any actions taken in reliance on any content. Information is provided for informational purposes only and is not investment advice. This is not a recommendation to buy or sell a particular digital asset or to employ a particular investment strategy. Coinbase makes no representation on the accuracy, suitability, or validity of any information provided or for a particular asset. Prices shown are for illustrative purposes only. Actual cryptocurrency prices and associated stats may vary. Data presented may reflect assets traded on Coinbase’s exchange and select other cryptocurrency exchanges. Past performance is not a reliable indicator of future results.