Bitcoin hit a 12-week high

There’s never a dull moment onchain. Here’s what you need to know this week:

Bitcoin hit a 12-week high. And why DoorDash, Morgan Stanley, and Western Union are expanding into stablecoins.

What’s next for crypto? Five top analysts on where markets could be headed.

Prediction markets on the pro hockey playoffs. Which teams do traders think will win their first-round matchups?

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MARKET BYTES

Bitcoin surged to a 12-week high before dipping on Iran news, Fed meeting

With no clear end to the Iran conflict in sight — and negotiations over oil traffic in the Strait of Hormuz “stuck in limbo,” as CBS News reports — crypto prices have continued to spike and dip as new twists emerge in the story.

In the early hours of Monday, bitcoin climbed to $79,488, a 12-week high. Prices then dipped on Tuesday, and again on Wednesday after the Federal Reserve’s latest interest-rate announcement. According to analysts speaking to Bloomberg, it’s not surprising that prices trended downward when they did.

“The risks are real. U.S.-Iran peace deal odds have collapsed, a macro overhang that could reprice risk assets broadly,” said Rachael Lucas, an analyst at BTC Markets. “$80,000 is where many recent buyers are approaching breakeven, which is typically where selling pressure emerges as they rotate out of their positions.” (As of Wednesday, a majority of prediction market traders don’t see normal traffic returning to the Strait of Hormuz until at least August.)

One major reason bitcoin prices have continued to trade in a relatively small range despite the geopolitical volatility has been strong institutional inflows to crypto ETFs, with net inflows to BTC ETFs hitting $2.5 billion so far in April, double last month’s figure. The BTC accumulation giant Strategy has also picked up its pace in recent weeks, buying around $4.1 billion in BTC in April, the most in a year, according to Bloomberg data.

Here’s more news you should know…

Federal Reserve keeps rates steady at Powell’s likely final meeting as chair

This week the Federal Reserve held interest rates at their current levels of 3.50% to 3.75%, which were set in December after a series of cuts last year. The central bank cited inflation that is “elevated, in part reflecting the recent increase in global energy prices;” “a high level of uncertainty” due to the Iran conflict; and “job gains [that] have remained low, on average.”

Bitcoin responded to the news by dipping near $75,000 before recovering slightly.

Lower interest rates historically have helped boost crypto, stocks, and many other markets with extra liquidity — but they can also fuel inflation. The Fed’s current goal is to bring inflation down to 2% while sustaining maximum employment.

The meeting was Jerome Powell’s last as chair, although he said that he’ll remain on the board for now. Earlier on Wednesday, the Trump administration’s nominee for the role, Kevin Warsh, clinched a 13-11 party-line victory in the Senate Banking Committee, moving closer to likely confirmation by the full Senate.

Wen cuts?… Warsh, who has promised the Fed will maintain its independence, has argued that gains in productivity from AI might create an opportunity for cuts. Rates are set by a 12-person committee, of which the chair makes up one vote. A majority of prediction market traders believe there will be zero rate cuts this year.

Why Doordash, Morgan Stanley, and more businesses are turning to stablecoins

For the last year, stablecoins — tokens that are pegged to the price of another asset, typically the U.S. dollar — have been one of the biggest stories in crypto. Since the passage of the GENIUS act in July 2025, the total stablecoin market cap has surged to more than $300 billion, with a fast-increasing percentage being put to work as “everyday money.”

This week, stablecoin payments firm Tempo announced that it is working with DoorDash to use stablecoins across a complex web of payments, which span more than 40 countries and involves customers, merchants, and delivery workers. “There's real promise with stablecoins transforming financial infrastructure, not just in America, but globally,” said DoorDash co-founder Andy Fang. “We want to be a proactive participant and not just passive.”

On Wall Street, Morgan Stanley announced that it’s launching a GENIUS Act-compliant government money market fund designed for stablecoin issuers who need a place to keep their reserve assets. The bank sees the move as part of “a firmwide effort to modernize financial infrastructure,” according to The Block.

Stable stakes… Few businesses are as directly challenged by stablecoins — which offer cheap and near-instant cross-border transactions — as Western Union. This week, the firm announced that it’s rolling out its own Solana-based stablecoin as soon as next month. “It is no longer a question of if Western Union will be active in digital assets, it is now how fast we can scale,” said CEO Devin McGranahan.

CRYPTO BALL

Is crypto’s bearish phase over? 5 top analysts weigh in.

Crypto markets have been mired in uncertainty since the beginning of the Iran conflict. But now, with bitcoin appearing to show signs of stabilizing and ether emerging as the highest performing major asset across all markets since the beginning of the war, some analysts are slowly gaining faith that the market’s bottom is in and clearer skies could be ahead.

Here’s what five major market watchers had to say.

“The best days of crypto are ahead which will reflect in a higher and structurally longer crypto bull cycle,” said Gautam Chhugani of Bernstein in a recent analyst note.

Chhugani wrote that with BTC approaching $80,000, the crypto market looks fundamentally stronger, and that lows of around $60,000 should mark a clear bottom for the asset. Institutional adoption is the driving factor behind the stabilization of the market and ETF inflows providing a steady base of long-term BTC holders, evidenced by the fact that more than 60% of Bitcoin’s supply hasn’t been sold in over a year. Plus, institutions are also building new ways to access crypto, including Charles Schwab offering spot BTC and ETH trading, and Morgan Stanley recently launching its own Bitcoin ETF.

“Even if the winter is over for bitcoin, which I don’t agree with, it is still very cold for altcoins,” said Jason Fernandes, market analyst and AdLunam co-founder.

Fernandes cited tight liquidity conditions, as well as elevated interest rates, as reasons to remain bearish. While analysts had anticipated the Fed likely cutting interest rates multiple times in 2026 prior to the war in Iran, rates now appear likely to be holding steady, at least for the medium-term. Until that changes, or there’s a “true washout event” in crypto markets, downside volatility appears likely, said Fernandes. With around 30% of the entire altcoin market hovering near all-time lows, the struggle for non-bitcoin tokens to catch sustained momentum is clear.

“Before a bull market for bitcoin can be called, the price needs to break back above $100,000 and no support anywhere near has manifested,” said Michael Terpin, author of Bitcoin Supercycle: How the Crypto Calendar Can Make You Rich.

Terpin believes that BTC hasn’t yet bottomed, a level he sees forming around $57,000 in Q4 of this year. His analysis is largely based on the fact that bitcoin wasn’t able to make a move past $80,000 in recent days, despite showing signs of momentum in recent weeks and relative strength since the start of the Iran war.

“We are optimistic that the macro situation could shift in a positive direction in the weeks to come, which would help many crypto assets form a bottom in the near-term and recover into Q2 2026,” said David Duong, Coinbase’s global head of research, in his most recent monthly outlook.

Still, Duong said that his outlook for the rest of Q2 remains “neutral” due geopolitical uncertainty. Even though crypto has remained relatively resilient amid the Middle East conflict, if the situation worsens, crypto won’t be fully insulated from its fallout, according to Duong.

Additionally, while the Iran war is the main factor hanging over markets, Duong also pointed out the progress of the CLARITY Act (the crypto market structure bill) and the threat of quantum-computing to the security of blockchain networks as two key factors to watch in the short-to-medium term.

“I think it is very likely that we have seen the bottom,” said Mati Greenspan, a former senior market analyst at eToro and founder of Quantum Economics.

Instead of classifying the recent bearish phase as a “crypto winter,” Greenspan says it was simply a deep pullback within a broader bull market. The rest of the cycle, he says, will be dominated by increased institutional adoption, as well as the potential adoption from nation-states. The continued purchases from El Salvador, plus the moves from states like New Jersey and Wisconsin to introduce bitcoin exposure to public pensions, highlight the potential for more governments to begin adding bitcoin, according to Greenspan.

PREDICTION MARKETS

Who will win in the first round of the NHL playoffs?

The first round of the pro hockey playoffs are nearing their conclusion, with 16 teams competing for the right to hoist the Stanley Cup. How do traders see the first round matchups rounding out?

Here’s what they’re saying as of Wednesday around 11:00 a.m. PDT.

Series Winner: Montreal Canadiens vs. Tampa Bay Lightning

What markets say: Traders placed the 2nd-seeded Lightning as the favorites coming into the series, with a 69% probability of winning prior to a puck being dropped. But after falling behind 2 games to 1, their probability fell to as low as 42%. With the series tied back up at 2-2, they’re the favorites again – but by a slightly slimmer 63% margin.

What analysts say: “The Lightning were going to be a tough opponent for any team to measure up to. But a plus-86 Net Rating is more than three times Montreal’s. Roster strength is a big reason why. While the Canadiens are growing into a real contender, the Lightning’s roster is still star-studded, and that’s really tough to compete with.” – The Athletic

Series Winner: Philadelphia Flyers vs. Pittsburgh Penguins

What markets say: Traders had hockey legend Sidney Crosby and the Penguins as the heavy underdogs coming into the series, and their probability fell to as low as 6% as they dropped to 3-0 in the best of seven matchup. After winning two straight, though, their probability of winning is at 27%, near its high point during the entire matchup.

What analysts say: “The Flyers should be concerned. The Penguins have won two games in a row, yet haven’t fully shown up offensively. This was the third-highest scoring team in the NHL during the regular season. You have to wonder if, one of these nights, the Penguins’ offensive machine is going to erupt.” – The Athletic

Series Winner: Utah Mammoth vs. Las Vegas Golden Nights

What markets say: The Golden Nights were given a 64% probability of winning prior to the series kicking off. After falling behind 2-1 in the series, their probability fell to as low as 31% before they came back to win Game 4 and tie the series up. They remain the favorites, with a 61% probability, but the numbers have been volatile.

What analysts say: “Vegas is favored as one might expect; the Golden Knights have the resume, the pedigree and the roster strength to go deep despite their record… But the series isn’t nearly as lopsided as that pedigree might entail. The Mammoth are the real deal and are beginning to realize their potential at just the right time.” – The Athletic

Series Winner: Minnesota Wild vs. Dallas Stars

What markets say: It’s been a near toss-up from the start, with the probabilities essentially at 50-50 prior to the series beginning. Dallas did briefly pull away in the eyes of traders after going up 2-1 in the series, and had as high as an 83% probability of winning. But after the Wild’s win on Tuesday night, traders assigned a 74% that Minnesota would close out the series, with the Wild now leading 3-2.

What analysts say: “The analytics show that this has mostly been an even series at five-on-five. The Wild are just cashing in on more of their chances, while the Stars haven’t finished as efficiently. In all situations, according to HockeyStats.com, the Wild have scored plus-3.1 goals above expected, and the Stars have scored 2.1 goals below expected.” – The Athletic

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