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If Delcy Rodríguez de facto holds the position of head of state of Venezuela at the end of 2026, then the market resolves to Yes. For the purposes of this Contract, "Delcy Rodríguez de facto holds head of state of Venezuela" means that, at the end of 2026, Delcy Rodríguez is the individual who primarily exercises the governing authority and core powers customarily attached to head of state of Venezuela, regardless of Delcy Rodríguez's formal title, constitutional designation, formal appointment, domestic legal status, foreign recognition, or international recognition. The Source Agency's determination of whether Delcy Rodríguez de facto holds head of state of Venezuela shall be based on objective indicators of governing authority over the functions attached to head of state of Venezuela, which may include, without limitation: Control over the executive ministries, administrative apparatus, bureaucracy, and state institutions associated with head of state of Venezuela Issuance of binding national directives, decrees, orders, or instructions that are observably obeyed and enforced within the relevant jurisdiction Control over the official seat of power, capital, headquarters, principal residence, or principal infrastructure associated with head of state of Venezuela Treatment by the domestic state institutions associated with head of state of Venezuela as the operative holder of head of state of Venezuela Treatment by foreign governments, multilateral institutions, and credentialed media as the operative holder of head of state of Venezuela The following alone will NOT qualify as de facto holding head of state of Venezuela: Holding the formal or constitutional title to head of state of Venezuela without exercising the core powers customarily attached to head of state of Venezuela Serving in an acting, interim, caretaker, provisional, or temporary capacity that is subordinate to and accountable to a principal who continues to exercise the core powers customarily attached to head of state of Venezuela Nomination, designation, election, appointment, or confirmation to head of state of Venezuela prior to the effective transfer of governing authority Status as successor, heir apparent, or designated replacement to head of state of Venezuela prior to assumption of governing authority Symbolic, ceremonial, or honorary status without exercise of the core powers customarily attached to head of state of Venezuela, except where head of state of Venezuela is itself a primarily ceremonial position and Delcy Rodríguez performs the ceremonial functions associated with head of state of Venezuela without operative displacement Foreign or international recognition as the holder of head of state of Venezuela without exercise of operative governing authority within the relevant jurisdiction Leadership from exile, in detention, or otherwise removed from the operating seat of head of state of Venezuela, where another individual is observably exercising the core powers customarily attached to head of state of Venezuela without subordination to Delcy Rodríguez Holding a different role with general political, religious, military, or institutional influence over head of state of Venezuela without personally exercising the core powers customarily attached to head of state of Venezuela If, at the end of 2026, the Source Agency does not identify any individual as exercising primary governing authority over the core powers customarily attached to head of state of Venezuela (including where head of state of Venezuela has been abolished, suspended, declared vacant, or where governing authority is genuinely fragmented among multiple individuals such that no individual primarily exercises the powers customarily attached to head of state of Venezuela), the Payout Criterion shall not be satisfied with respect to any listed person. If, at the end of 2026, more than one individual claims or is claimed to de facto hold head of state of Venezuela, the Source Agency shall determine the de facto holder by reference to which individual primarily exercises the indicators of governing authority described above; in any such determination, the higher-ranked Source Agencies shall prevail over lower-ranked Source Agencies. If multiple persons are determined to do so equally, all those persons' markets shall resolve to $1/n, rounded down, where n is the number of persons who do so and who have a strike listed. Outcome verified by Bloomberg, Agence France-Presse, New York Times, the Associated Press, Reuters

If Delcy Rodríguez de facto holds the position of head of state of Venezuela at the end of 2026, then the market resolves to Yes. For the purposes of this Contract, "Delcy Rodríguez de facto holds head of state of Venezuela" means that, at the end of 2026, Delcy Rodríguez is the individual who primarily exercises the governing authority and core powers customarily attached to head of state of Venezuela, regardless of Delcy Rodríguez's formal title, constitutional designation, formal appointment, domestic legal status, foreign recognition, or international recognition. The Source Agency's determination of whether Delcy Rodríguez de facto holds head of state of Venezuela shall be based on objective indicators of governing authority over the functions attached to head of state of Venezuela, which may include, without limitation: Control over the executive ministries, administrative apparatus, bureaucracy, and state institutions associated with head of state of Venezuela Issuance of binding national directives, decrees, orders, or instructions that are observably obeyed and enforced within the relevant jurisdiction Control over the official seat of power, capital, headquarters, principal residence, or principal infrastructure associated with head of state of Venezuela Treatment by the domestic state institutions associated with head of state of Venezuela as the operative holder of head of state of Venezuela Treatment by foreign governments, multilateral institutions, and credentialed media as the operative holder of head of state of Venezuela The following alone will NOT qualify as de facto holding head of state of Venezuela: Holding the formal or constitutional title to head of state of Venezuela without exercising the core powers customarily attached to head of state of Venezuela Serving in an acting, interim, caretaker, provisional, or temporary capacity that is subordinate to and accountable to a principal who continues to exercise the core powers customarily attached to head of state of Venezuela Nomination, designation, election, appointment, or confirmation to head of state of Venezuela prior to the effective transfer of governing authority Status as successor, heir apparent, or designated replacement to head of state of Venezuela prior to assumption of governing authority Symbolic, ceremonial, or honorary status without exercise of the core powers customarily attached to head of state of Venezuela, except where head of state of Venezuela is itself a primarily ceremonial position and Delcy Rodríguez performs the ceremonial functions associated with head of state of Venezuela without operative displacement Foreign or international recognition as the holder of head of state of Venezuela without exercise of operative governing authority within the relevant jurisdiction Leadership from exile, in detention, or otherwise removed from the operating seat of head of state of Venezuela, where another individual is observably exercising the core powers customarily attached to head of state of Venezuela without subordination to Delcy Rodríguez Holding a different role with general political, religious, military, or institutional influence over head of state of Venezuela without personally exercising the core powers customarily attached to head of state of Venezuela If, at the end of 2026, the Source Agency does not identify any individual as exercising primary governing authority over the core powers customarily attached to head of state of Venezuela (including where head of state of Venezuela has been abolished, suspended, declared vacant, or where governing authority is genuinely fragmented among multiple individuals such that no individual primarily exercises the powers customarily attached to head of state of Venezuela), the Payout Criterion shall not be satisfied with respect to any listed person. If, at the end of 2026, more than one individual claims or is claimed to de facto hold head of state of Venezuela, the Source Agency shall determine the de facto holder by reference to which individual primarily exercises the indicators of governing authority described above; in any such determination, the higher-ranked Source Agencies shall prevail over lower-ranked Source Agencies. If multiple persons are determined to do so equally, all those persons' markets shall resolve to $1/n, rounded down, where n is the number of persons who do so and who have a strike listed. Outcome verified by Bloomberg, Agence France-Presse, New York Times, the Associated Press, Reuters

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Key stats

Expiry
Jan 2, 2027(173 days)
Interest
$48,040.34
Vol (24H)
$43.85→ 0.00%
Total
$71K

Details

Timeline & rules

Timeline & payout

This market will close and expire when an outcome occurs. Otherwise, it closes by Jan 2, 2027, 4:59 AM GMT+0.

Trading prohibitions

The following are prohibited from trading this contract:
  • Persons who are employed by any of the Source Agencies are not permitted to trade on the Contract.
  • Persons who hold any material, non-public information on the Underlying are not permitted to trade on the Contract.
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Prediction markets are offered by Coinbase Financial Markets, a registered futures commission merchant with the Commodity Futures Trading Commission and a Member of the National Futures Association. Trading prediction contracts involve substantial risk and may result in the loss of your entire investment. Contracts pay out only if the specified event occurs. Trade only if you understand the product and believe it is appropriate for your financial situation and objectives.Certain content has been prepared by third parties not affiliated with Coinbase Financial Markets or any of its affiliates and Coinbase is not responsible for such content. Coinbase is not liable for any errors or delays in content, or for any actions taken in reliance on any content. Information is provided for informational purposes only and is not investment advice. This is not a recommendation to buy or sell a particular digital asset or to employ a particular investment strategy. Coinbase makes no representation on the accuracy, suitability, or validity of any information provided or for a particular asset. Prices shown are for illustrative purposes only. Actual cryptocurrency prices and associated stats may vary. Data presented may reflect assets traded on Coinbase’s exchange and select other cryptocurrency exchanges. Past performance is not a reliable indicator of future results.